Free Prime Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks, Second EditionAuthor Norman Fenton –

Since the first edition of this book published, Bayesian networks have become even important for applications in a vast array of fields This second edition includes new material on influence diagrams, learning from data, value of information, cybersecurity, debunking bad statistics, and much Focusing on practical real world problem solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, it explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use Bayesian causal models of risk that provide powerful insights and better decision making than is possible from purely data driven solutions Features Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, forensics, cybersecurity and Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed Establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using Bayesian network models, before going into the detailed applications A dedicated website contains exercises and worked solutions for all chapters along with numerous other resources The AgenaRisk software contains a model library with executable versions of all of the models in the book Lecture slides are freely available to accredited academic teachers adopting the book on their course A wonderful way to engage people and teams in Bayesian methods The book has humorous, relatable, relevant examples, and the software is both powerful and user friendly. The 1st edition was already a must for those interested in decision analysis with Bayesian Networks, and the same applies to the 2nd edition More specifically, the new chapters added to this new edition that cover influence diagrams and value of information are a must read if you are interested in decision analysis What makes this book different than many others is its focus on explaining things step by step using many examples, ensuring that the reader is aware of the many potential pitfalls and how to avoid them. Like the 1st edition it is a recommended first read it s well written, updated with additional material and topics that consider some contemporary issues It s vertically and horizontally broad in that it develops a good understanding of theory with application examples The book has a good presentation of concepts, interesting material that is diverse, but the learning curve is not short but neither is it discouraging I found myself drawn in with each chapter even though I didn t read them sequentially as I d read the first edition some time ago Contemporary issues are presented with some results challenging conventional wisdom It will show how your lack of understanding increases your susceptibility to the many analysis that have been wrongly interpreted The updated and additional models are worth the read covering bad statistics, risk assessment, decision analysis, hypothesis testing, reliability modeling or forensic and legal evidence reasoning Certainly, in this list of topics, several you may find appealing More importantly, for serious practitioners having the software and examples combine to make this a good read but excellent learning tool I have used this professionally for financial analysis, product performance assessment, and business decision making I also urge you to consider the additional readings and publications provided at the end of each chapter.The book is well worth it when the 3rd edition is published I ll buy that one too.